Meteorologists Warn of Tropical Threat That Could Impact Florida and the Gulf
Posted on 05/30/26 at 12:43
- Tropical Threat Near Florida
- Gulf Under Weather Watch
- Risk From Heavy Rain
Weather conditions in the Gulf of Mexico and the southwestern Atlantic have specialists on alert after they warned of a possible tropical threat near Florida during the first days of June.
AccuWeather meteorologists said warm waters in the region could favor the development of a tropical system as wind shear decreases.
The warning comes just days before the official start of the Atlantic hurricane season, which begins this Monday, June 1, and ends November 30.
Tropical Development Near Florida Under Watch
Warning issued for tropical threat from the central Gulf toward Florida waters
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— el Nuevo Herald (@elnuevoherald) May 28, 2026
According to el Nuevo Herald, experts said conditions from Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula to the waters near Florida could become more favorable for tropical development in the coming days.
Alex DaSilva, AccuWeather’s lead hurricane expert, explained that the central and eastern Gulf, as well as the southwestern Atlantic, often experience early tropical development.
“The probability of development remains very low in the short term due to strong wind shear,” DaSilva explained.
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However, he explained that as that wind shear decreases, an area of low pressure could develop in the Gulf or western Caribbean.
AccuWeather’s team of tropical meteorologists believes the highest chance of development would occur between the middle and end of next week.
DaSilva added that sea surface temperatures are already above average in several areas.
He also said the waters are near the usual threshold needed for tropical development.
Track Would Depend on Point of Formation
Specialists explained that the possible track of the system would depend on the exact location where it forms.
A storm that forms in the central or eastern Gulf would have a higher chance of moving northeast.
By contrast, a system that develops over the southwestern Gulf, in the Bay of Campeche, could move west and into Mexico.
DaSilva also said that even if no tropical storm forms, weather conditions through mid-June could be wetter in Florida.
According to him, this would help ease drought conditions affecting some parts of the state.
Meteorologists added that wave intensity will depend on the organization and strength of any system that manages to develop.
Rain, Wind, and Sudden Changes Raise Concerns
AccuWeather warned that intense showers, gusty winds, and sudden weather changes could pose a risk to tourists and boaters.
The area under watch stretches from the northwestern Caribbean and the Gulf to the southwestern Atlantic.
Experts recommended special attention for people visiting beaches or taking part in maritime activities in the region.
Alan Reppert, a senior AccuWeather meteorologist, explained that some of the energy associated with this possible tropical development in the Gulf could shift toward the Pacific.
“It is possible that some — or all — of the energy contributing to the possible storm on the Atlantic side could end up shifting toward the Pacific side,” he said.
Reppert added that development usually occurs on only one side of the zone that includes Central America and southern Mexico.
“Simultaneous development on both sides rarely occurs,” he concluded.
